I read an interesting article today where a reputable source at ESPN linked my Seattle Mariners to Mark Prior (along with many other teams). On the one hand, I was pretty excited because I think this is exactly the kind of risk the M's should be taking (as I've stated previously in this very blog).
As I continued to read, I was struck by this comment from his agent, on why Mark Prior wants only a one-year contract: "we're planning on him being good." Which, should really be in everyone's plans, really - to be 'good', right? So, with that line of reasoning in mind, does that mean that those pursuing multiple year contracts with a suspect history are worried about being "good"? Is Kyle Lohse's agent (yes, Scott Boras) admitting to everyone, in his argment for a five year contract for Lohse, that he really doesn't plan on being any better than he has been in the past - and he needs the security of a long term deal because who knows when he's just going to suck beyond all degree of well, "suckiness"? I digress...
My point is - what's "good"? Well, in grading systems - "good" is a B - it's above average. You're better than the average Joe. Fortunately, we have a statistic to measure what an average pitcher is, and it controls for what kind of a park you pitch in on any given day - it's called "Adjusted ERA+". If you score 100, you're the exact league average. If you score 110, you're slightly better than average; 90 is slightly below average. Pretty simple.
Examples for you - Paul Byrd, with a 4.59 ERA had an ERA+ of 100. Tim Wakefield, with a 4.76 had an ERA+ of 100. Byrd has the better ERA, but because he pitches in a less-hitter friendly park, his Adjusted ERA+ indicates he's really no better than average - he Wakefield's equivalent.
Josh Beckett had an ERA+ of 145; Erik Bedard - 146; Danny Haren - 137. They're really good. Got it?
Well, we're on the brink of watching Carlos Silva become a very rich man at the hands of Bill Bavasi. You'd think that if you were making $11-12 million bucks a year, you would be considered "good". Is Carlos Silva good? His ERA+ was 103. All things being equal, he's average. Huh. So we're buying average?
Let's look at the projected Mariner rotation then.
- Felix Hernandez ERA+ 110
- Miguel Batista ERA+ 101
- Carlos Silva ERA+ 103
- Jarrod Washburn ERA+ 100
See a pattern developing? Bill is having a hard time assessing what's good - because according to this, you have yourself exactly one starting pitcher that's better than average.
And that ain't good.
